Charging Toward a "Strong Bull" Regime
Scott Shelton
The IPO Market Oscillator is approaching “Strong Bull” territory — a rare, high-momentum regime historically linked to outsized gains in newly public equities. In this week’s Prophet’s Perspective, we break down what’s driving the move, how market breadth is shifting, and why IPO investors should be ready to grab the bull by the horns.
The IPO Market Oscillator is pushing toward Strong Bull territory — a rare, high-momentum regime that’s historically marked the start of powerful runs in newly public equities.
Deal flow is broadening, aftermarket performance is strengthening, and investor risk appetite is finally returning. Together, these shifts point to a market that’s regaining its footing and expanding in participation — the kind of environment where disciplined aggression can pay off.
In this week’s Prophet’s Perspective, we break down what’s driving the move, how market breadth is evolving, and why IPO traders should be ready to grab the bull by the horns.
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Where We Stand Now
The Oscillator tracks the health of the IPO market using a blend of deal flow, order flow, and aftermarket performance metrics. It divides the environment into four regimes:
Today, the line sits right around 6.0 — not yet across, but clearly pressing higher.
The difference between Bull and Strong Bull is more than cosmetic: history shows a measurable shift in win rates, payoff skew, and the sustainability of momentum once the Oscillator clears that level.
Why Strong Bull Matters
Backtests across 2012–2025 show that Strong Bull regimes produce the most favorable payoff structure in our database:
In other words: when the Oscillator tips into Strong Bull, Related Posts |
